Shipping traffic in and out of Russia has remained strong in the past few months as companies have raced to fulfill contracts for purchases of energy and other goods before the full force of global sanctions goes into effect.
The situation could change significantly if the European Union introduces a ban on Russian oil. Data shows that despite the reduction in commerce with Russia, it has not been crippled.
According to the shipping tracker Refinitiv, the volumes of crude and oil products shipped out of Russian ports increased to 25 million metric tons in April, up from around 24 million metric tons in December, January, February and March.
Jim Mitchell, the head of oil research for the Americas at Refinitiv, said that Russia's outgoing shipments in April had been boosted by the global economic recovery, but that they did not yet reflect the impact of sanctions and other restrictions on Russia.
Changes to behavior following the Russian invasion were still being worked their way through the system, meaning that crude oil trades 45 to 60 days ahead of delivery.
The volume has been slow to decline because the contracts have already been set. He said that it is a nightmare for both sides and that nobody really wants to break a contract.
Since Western governments united to announce their array of sanctions, Russia has stopped publishing data on its imports and exports. It can be difficult for outside firms to verify oil or gas exports from Russia.
The global activities of the massive vessels that call on Russian ports to pick up and deliver containers of consumer products or bulk-loads of grain and oil are easier to monitor. Automatic tracking systems, which are monitored by a variety of firms, are required for ships to transmit their identity, position, course and other information.
Despite the tensions with Russia, shipping traffic was relatively robust in March and April according to these firms. That shows how long some of the sanctions are taking to come into effect and how profitable it is to trade with Russia after prices for its energy products and commodities have cratered.
Data from MarineTraffic shows that traffic from Russia's major ports declined after the invasion, but did not plummet, despite the fact that the live location of ships around the world using those on-ship tracking systems. The number of container ships, tanker and bulkers that move energy and consumer products was down in March and April compared with the previous year.
The sanctions have not been so difficult to maneuver around, according to Georgios Hatzimanolis, who analyzes global shipping for MarineTraffic.
Lloyd's List Intelligence shows similar trends. In the five weeks after the invasion, the number of bulk carriers that transported loose cargo from Russian ports was down 6 percent.
Russia's trade with China and Japan was stable in the weeks after the invasion, while the number of bulk carriers headed to South Korea, Egypt and Turkey increased.
Sebastian Villyn is the head of risk and compliance data at Lloyd's List Intelligence.
The figures are somewhat different from statements from global leaders. The Russian economy is "absolutely reeling" and faces double-digit inflation, according to Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen.
The Treasury Department is considering whether to extend an exemption in its sanctions that has allowed American financial institutions and investors to continue processing Russian bond payments. She said that officials were working to determine the consequences of allowing the license to expire on May 25, which would likely lead to Russia's first default on its foreign debt.
Europe, a major customer of Russian energy, is moving away from oil and coal as a result of global sanctions on Russia. According to trade data, shipments into Russia of high-value products like semiconductors and airplane parts have plummeted because of export controls issued by the United States and its allies.
Russia's major exports are energy products, which are exempt from sanctions, to avoid causing more pain to consumers at a time of rapid price increases, disrupted supply chains and a growing global food crisis.
Western governments have imposed an array of financial restrictions on Russia, including banning transactions with the central bank, freezing the assets of many Russian officials, and cutting off Russian banks from international transactions.
Canada and the United States have banned imports of Russian energy, but they are not among Russia's largest energy customers.
There is a far-reaching conflict. The stock market's troubles have been added to by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The conflict has caused spikes in gas prices and product shortages, and is pushing Europe to rethink its dependence on Russian energy sources.
Global growth slows. The effects of the war have made it difficult for major economies to recover from the Pandemic and have caused new uncertainty. The United States' gross domestic product fell in the first quarter of 2022.
Russia's economy is facing a slowdown. The Russian economy has avoided a collapse thanks to capital controls and interest rate increases. Russia's central bank chief warned that the country is likely to face a steep economic downturn as its inventory of imported goods and parts is low.
Barriers go up. The invasion of Ukraine has led to a wave of new barriers to stop exports as governments try to protect their citizens from shortages and rising prices. The products are more expensive because of the restrictions.
The prices of essential metals go up. Russia is the world's largest exporter of the metal and the price of it has gone up as a result. The price of nickel, a key Russian export, has been rising.
The European Union, which is a key destination for Russian energy, plans to begin barring Russian coal later this year and is moving toward a ban on Russian oil by the end of the year, although opposition from Hungary has emerged as a recent stumbling block. Britain will stop buying Russian oil by the end of the year.
After a meeting of the Group of 7 countries, the Biden administration said it would place additional restrictions on the imports of Russia's industrial sector and impose sanctions on seven shipping companies, which together own or operate 69 vessels.
Many companies, including in the energy sector, said they would stop operations in Russia.
There could be more changes soon. According to Mr. Mitchell of Refinitiv, insurers in places like Switzerland and Bermuda are not willing to cover vessels that call on Russia. European governments are talking about banning shipping and insurance.
President Putin of Russia signed a decree last week prohibiting the export of products and raw materials to people or entities that are not approved by the government.
According to their tracking, Russian crude exports were higher in April because sanctions weren't yet in place to deter the buying of Russian crude.
He said that Russian crude exports are not dropping as expected.
Russian crude oil flows into northwest Europe decreased in April but shipments to Italy and other European countries increased. He said that countries like India and Turkey that don't import a lot of oil from Russia had snapped up those barrels at a steep discount.
For all intents and purposes, nothing has changed, Mr. Smith said.
If Russia's export volumes go down, rising energy prices could help.
Ms. Yellen said that a European embargo on Russian energy could have adverse consequences for global energy markets. Administration officials have been concerned that embargoes will push up the price of oil around the world, which will allow Russia to make more money. She said that the United States and its allies were looking into setting up a special payments authority where Russia could get paid for the cost of production of its oil exports while taxes would be diverted to Ukraine.
As British and European sanctions on Russian energy take effect later this year, Russia is likely to shift its sales outside of Europe.
Daniel Yergin, an energy historian and author of The Prize, said that China and India were getting more and more distressed Russian oil.
Putin always said that Russia's future was in Asia.
Alan Rappeport contributed reporting.
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