New research could provide earlier warning of tsunamis

A new method of detecting mega earthquakes, which picks up on the gravity waves they generate by using deep-learning models created at Los Alamos National Laboratory, can estimate earthquake magnitude in real time and provide earlier warning of tsunamis.

The model unlocks real-time estimation of earthquake magnitude, using data routinely treated as noise, and can immediately be useful for early warning of a wave.

The risk of strong shaking and tsunamis is mitigated by the rapid and reliable magnitude estimation for large earthquakes. Standard early warning systems rely on estimating earthquake magnitude directly from the shaking it produces, which is not fast enough. The systems can't distinguish between magnitude 8 and magnitude 9 earthquakes, even though the latter is 30 times more destructive.

There are important distinctions that can be made.

A research team found that a long-theorized gravity wave can be used for earthquake early warning. Unlike seismology, gravity-based early warning does not saturate with magnitude, so it can immediately distinguish between magnitude 8 and 9 earthquakes.

Other approaches rely on gps to estimate earthquake magnitude. This approach is subject to large uncertainties and is not as reliable as earthquake early warning.

For larger earthquakes, the PEGS approach is more accurate.

The recently discovered, speed-of-light Prompt Elasto-Gravity Signals approach raised hopes to overcome these limitations, but until now, had never been tested for earthquake early warning. The PEGS approach to detection gets more accurate for larger earthquakes.

The research team showed that PEGS can be used in real time to track earthquake growth and magnitude immediately after it reaches a certain size. The team developed a deep-learning model that uses the information from the PEGS.

The team was able to show the first example of instantaneous tracking of an earthquake source on real data after training the deep-learning model on a database of synthetic waveforms.

This model and real-time data can alert communities much earlier if a mega earthquake is large enough to cause a wave that will endanger the coastal populations.

More information: Andrea Licciardi et al, Instantaneous tracking of earthquake growth with elastogravity signals, Nature (2022). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04672-7 Journal information: Nature Citation: New research could provide earlier warning of tsunamis (2022, May 12) retrieved 12 May 2022 from https://phys.org/news/2022-05-earlier-tsunamis.html This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.