Study finds cleaner air leads to more Atlantic hurricanes

A new U.S. government study found that cleaner air in the United States and Europe is causing more hurricanes.

The study links changes in air pollution across the globe to storm activity. There has been a 50% decrease in pollution particles and droplets in Europe and the US.

The change in storm activity in different parts of the globe that can't be explained by natural climate cycles was explained by a link to aerosol pollution from industry and cars.

Scientists have known for a long time that aerosol pollution cools the air, at times reducing the larger effects of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuel, and earlier studies mentioned it as a possibility in increase in Atlantic storms.

Hurricanes need warm water, which is warm by the air, for fuel and are harmed by wind shear, which changes in upper level winds that can decapitate storm tops. The dirty air in the Pacific and cleaner air in the Atlantic mess with each other.

Aerosol pollution peaked around 1980 in the Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures are increasing even more because the cooling that masked the greenhouse gas warming is going away. The lack of cooling aerosols has helped push the jet stream, the river of air that moves weather from west to east on a roller-coaster like path.

Jim Kossin of The Climate Service said that the Atlantic has gone crazy since the mid-90s and that it was quiet in the 70s and 80s. He said that it makes sense. The aerosol pollution gave a lot of people in the 70s and 80s a break, but we are all paying for it now.

Natural fluctuations in Pacific temperatures that alter climate worldwide are huge. Climate change from greenhouse gases is one of several natural long-term climatic oscillations, according to Murakami.

Climate change from greenhouse gases is expected to reduce the number of storms slightly, but increase the number and strength of the most intense hurricanes, make them wetter and increase storm surge flooding, according to scientists.

Adam Sobel, a climate scientist at Columbia University, said that aerosol cooling is twice as effective as warming in reducing tropical cyclone intensity. Climate change will become more prominent as aerosol pollution stays at low levels in the Atlantic and greenhouse gas emissions grow.

Aerosol pollution from Asian nations has gone up 50% from 1980 to 2010 in the Pacific. The number of tropical cyclones formed from 2001 to 2020 is lower than in the past.

There was a correlation that was different heading south. A drop in European and American aerosol pollution changed the global air patterns in a way that meant a decrease in storms in the southern hemisphere.

More hurricanes in the Atlantic can be a problem, but the seven million people a year who die from air pollution are not.

Air pollution is a major killer, so reducing emissions is critical no matter what happens with the number of storms.

More information: Hiroyuki Murakami, Substantial global influence of anthropogenic aerosols on tropical cyclones over the past 40 years, Science Advances (2022). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abn9493 Journal information: Science Advances

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