Court watchers think Chief Justice John Roberts is against reversing the decision.
Roberts has a narrow position on abortion rights.
The final ruling of the Supreme Court would be that position.
The Chief Justice angered conservatives before.
He has voted to uphold the health care law, protect the rights of the lesbian, gay, and bisexual community, strike down a Louisiana abortion restriction, and safeguard the so-called DREAMers policy, all of which have earned him a reputation as an unreliable ally to the conservative legal movement.
Now that the Supreme Court has a 6-3 majority, anti-abortion advocates are eagerly waiting to see if they will be able to overturn the Wade decision.
Roberts could change their plans.
Court watchers believe that the chief justice is opposed to a complete reversal of the landmark ruling that legalized abortion nationwide.
His position puts him at odds with his five fellow conservatives on the bench who, according to a leaked authentic draft opinion, appear ready to toss out the precedent.
Glenn Cohen, a professor at Harvard Law School, told Insider that the chief justice is likely in favor of abortion rights.
The Mississippi law that seeks to ban abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy is at the center of a case that will be heard by the court. Mississippi wants the nation's highest court to leave abortion decision-making up to the states and overrule the 1992 decision that said states cannot impose an "undue burden" on abortion.
According to multiple news outlets, Roberts seems to be carving out a narrow path, one that may allow Mississippi's law to stand, but still preserve the core principle of abortion. Roberts thought to the Washington Post and CNN, according to sources familiar with the court's deliberations.
Mark Kende, a professor at Drake University Law School, told Insider that Roberts is pushing to try to get a compromise on 15 weeks.
Roberts' ability to win over at least one other justice, a move that would dismantle the five votes required for a majority, and make his opinion the final decision of the court is what determines whether Roberts is successful.
According to a new report, no of the five conservative justices seem to have changed their minds so far. The court is expected to make a decision on the case by late June or early July.
He only has the power of persuasion. He doesn't have the authority to make other justices reach a decision that the justice doesn't want to reach. He only has the power of persuasion, according to a professor at the school.
During oral arguments for the case heard on December 1, there were signs that Roberts may split from the conservative wing of the court. The chief justice questioned him in a way that made him stand out. He fixated on Mississippi's 15-week law rather than the state's demands to overturn it.
The 15-week standard is what we have before us, Roberts said.
Roberts moved away from a discussion on total abortion bans and asked about changing the viability cut-off.
The rest of the conservatives were focused on something else. The interests of fetal life were raised by the justices. Justice Amy Coney Barrett was interested in the topic of adoption. Justice Neil Gorsuch had doubts about the test. Clarence Thomas questioned how abortion rights are protected.
The leaked draft opinion showed that Roberts might be alone in his thinking.
The justices met in a private conference to vote on the case after oral arguments. According to the report, Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett voted in favor of Mississippi. Roberts vote was not clear.
If the chief justice votes in the majority, the most senior member of the majority is tasked with the responsibility, and if not, the most senior member of the majority is not. Thomas, the longest-serving member on the court, has been a vocal opponent of abortion. It is not clear why he was not writing the opinion.
The fact that Justice Alito got the opinion suggests that the chief justice was not the one to assign it, because he knows that Alito is like a bottle of rage.
Roberts appeared to signal that he was not giving up on his stance after the leak.
To the extent that this betrayal of the confidences of the Court was intended to undermine the integrity of our operations, it will not succeed. He said in a statement that the work of the Court would not be affected by the draft opinion.
The Supreme Court in a press release said that Alito's draft opinion does not represent a decision by the Court or the final position of any member on the issues in the case.
Kende told Insider that Chief Justice Roberts has tried to be a justice who looks after the institutional integrity of the court and this has to be his worst nightmare.
Kende said that he thinks he will have some leverage now that the court is not going to get rid of it. We are going to compromise.
Over his 16 years on the bench, Roberts has become an advocate for incremental decisions rather than sweeping changes to the law. Roberts is a member of the Bush bloc and has a strong conservative record. He has sided with the court's liberals in some high-profile, contentious cases.
Roberts was thought to have lost influence after the conservative majority on the Supreme Court was solidified in 2020. The swing vote in the court was held by him. Roberts was able to bring justices on his side in several decisions despite the new makeup of the court.
Last year, Roberts and two other justices denied a Republican-backed challenge to the health care law. The court's two newest members cast key votes with Roberts in a decision that narrowly supported religious groups, a stance that was met with frustration by the court's more conservative members.
Because of their willingness to follow the chief justice and observe judicial restraint, they are likely to be targets in this abortion-rights case.
There is no reason to think that Chief Justice Roberts is trying to convince one member of the majority to go with him.
Some court watchers think the potential pursuit is over. Donald Trump promised on the campaign trail that he would appoint Supreme Court justices who were against abortion. Each of his picks came through conservative legal networks that pushed anti-abortion agendas.
Colb said that he didn't think any of the justices would jump ship and enforce the law.
The result may become a splintered 4-2-3 ruling if Roberts is able to get one vote. Roberts would have the chance to write an opinion of the court.
Werhan said that he could write an opinion, which would have the least loyalty, but it would state the position going forward.
Roberts is popular among Americans despite the public's falling trust in the Supreme Court. According to a December poll by Gallup, a majority of Americans approve of how he has handled his job. The Gallup tracker shows that just 40% of Americans support the high court's work.
Legal experts say the public is losing faith in the court. He has tried to fight off criticisms about the legitimacy of the court.
The irony is that Chief Justice Roberts used to be a real champion of overruling the Supreme Court.
If the court adopts the Roberts approach, it will anger conservatives who want to see abortion completely gutted. Changing the viability mark will upset liberals, who have fought to keep it intact.
Werhan said that a cutback on abortion access was achieved byCasey.
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