Odds Are Now 50/50 That We'll Exceed 1.5 °C Warming Within Just 5 Years

There is a chance that global temperatures will go above 1.5 degrees Celsius in one of the next five years, according to the United Nations.

The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change saw countries agree to cap global warming at 2 degrees C above 1850 levels and 1.5 degrees C above 1900 levels.

The UN's World Meteorological Organization said in an annual climate update that the chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels is about as likely as not.

The WMO said the likelihood was increasing with time.

The Paris aspirational target of 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level would be exceeded by an average temperature of 1.5 degrees.

Between now and 2026 there is a 93 percent chance that the year will become the warmest on record.

The chance of the five-year temperature average being higher than the last five years was put at 93 percent.

The study shows that we are getting closer to the lower target of the Paris Agreement with a high level of scientific skill.

The 1.5 figure is not random. It is an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and the planet.

As global temperatures rise, temporary exceedances are expected, but the Paris Agreement level of 1.5 °C refers to long-term warming.

A single year of exceedance above 1.5 C does not mean we have broken the Paris Agreement, but it does show that we are close to a situation where 1.5 C could be exceeded for an extended period.

According to the WMO figures, the average global temperature in 2021 was 1.11 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

The report said that the cooling effect on global temperatures was caused by the back-to-back La Nina events.

This was only a short-term solution to the long-term global warming trend.

The large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is called La Nina.

The effect has widespread impacts on weather around the world, which is usually the opposite of the El Nino warming phase in the Southern Oscillation cycle.

The WMO said that any development of an El Nio event would immediately cause temperatures to rise.

The annual mean global near-surface temperature is predicted to be between 1.1 and 1.7 degrees higher than pre-industrial levels.

There is only a small chance that the five-year mean exceeds 1.5.

Taalas said that for as long as we emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise.

Along with that, our oceans will become warmer and more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea level will continue to rise and our weather will become more extreme.

What happens in the north affects all of us.

There is an increased chance of dry conditions over southwestern Europe and southwestern North America, as well as wet conditions in northern Europe, the Sahel, northeastern Brazil, and Australia.

Agence France-Presse