May 10, 2022, 01:01pm.
If China abandons its zero-covid strategy, it could overwhelm hospitals and kill more than 1 million people.
Following an outbreak of Covid-19, Shanghai has been under a curfew.
If the country drops its policy of eliminating infections through strict lockdown, an estimated 1.5 million people will die from Covid-19 within six months.
The model predicts a major Covid-19 wave between May and July with the potential to cause as many as 5.1 million hospital admissions and 2.7 million ICU admissions up to September 2022, with peak demand nearly 16 times existing capacity.
The researchers found that the majority of deaths would be among unvaccinated people over the age of 60.
China has reported fewer than 15,000 Covid-19 deaths since the beginning of the epidemic, but experts question the reliability of the data.
This approach may have worked in the past, but it is difficult to implement with a variant as transmissible as omicron and the researchers said it is questionable if China can continue to follow it.
The researchers modeled several strategies China could use to move away from zero Covid and learn to live with the virus, including widespread use of recently- approved antivirals, enhanced testing, booster doses and increasing vaccine coverage among the elderly. Lifting the restrictions put in place under zero- Covid was not enough to completely mitigate the risk of omicron and no method was able to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed or bring deaths down in line with the number killed by the flu each year. Increasing vaccination among the elderly and widespread use of antivirals should be priorities for future policy according to the researchers. They said that in the long-term, policies should focus on improving ventilation, strengthening critical care capacity and developing vaccines.
One of the few places left in the world still pursuing a zero-covid approach to the epidemic is China. Compatriots like Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan have abandoned the policy and acknowledged they cannot completely contain the virus, and the fervent pursuit of the policy was a disaster during an outbreak in Hong Kong. In China, Beijing's strict adherence has caused discontent and unrest among the millions locked down to prevent the spread of coronaviruses. Despite food shortages, accusations of inhumane treatment, and signs of an economic downturn, officials will adhere to the policy according to the president.
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