Hundreds of millions of people in South Asia are at risk of dying from the heat wave. Billions of people need air-conditioning. In the age of climate change, this 120-year-old technology is a necessity for human survival. The climate threat of a world overrun with ACs has created anxiety. The coming boom in air-conditioning is an essential shift toward reducing the enormous gap in cooling availability that exists between rich and poor people.
The majority of the two billion AC units currently in use across the globe are located in North America and East Asia. In the hottest regions of the world, AC ownership is just 12 percent compared to more than 90 percent in the U.S. and Japan. The trend will change dramatically as populations become wealthier and temperatures rise.
According to the International Energy Agency, the world is projected to add four billion AC units by 2050, driven by demand in emerging economies such as India and Indonesia. If inefficient models are used, these countries will need a lot more electricity. In India, AC could account for up to 44 percent of the peak load by the year 2050. If this power is supplied by fossil fuels, it will have a significant impact on global greenhouse gas emissions.
These projections are frightening. Is the need for cooling going to cook the planet? This is the wrong question to ask. It should not be the goal to ditch AC. This should be seen as an opportunity to explore green cooling technology and encourage the use of renewable energy. Climate justice can be achieved by equalizing conditions between different countries with air-conditioning. In the northern U.S. and northern Europe, lack of cooling is a summer annoyance. In the tropics, heat waves last longer and are more deadly. The citizens of Niamey, the capital of Niger, were in the heat for 174 days last year. In Basra, Iraq, there were 168 days of 100 degree-F.
The wet-bulb temperature is used to account for how the human body experiences extreme heat. If labor is at a wet-bulb temperature of 90 degrees F, the body can no longer cool itself, leading to illness and even death. South Asia could experience more unsafe-labor and life-threatening temperatures if global temperatures rise 2 degrees Celsius. Millions in the region will still be vulnerable to extreme heat stress even if the temperature rises to 1.5 degrees C. This isn't a hypothetical problem. The last nine years have all been among the top 10 warmest on record. South Asia set a March record for heat waves this year. Since 2010, heat waves in India have killed at least 6,500 people. Thousands of people died in India and Pakistan during the fifth deadliest heat wave ever recorded.
Mortality rates go up during heat waves, but there are other detrimental impacts to consider. South and Southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Central America have been shown to suffer economic losses due to high temperatures. 295 billion potential work hours were lost in 2020 due to extreme heat, with the greatest impacts in the agriculture sector of poor countries. It can be devastating for workers to lose their income.
What can the world do to avoid this disaster? Accepting that adequate cooling is an urgent human need in a warming climate is the next step. Access to equitable cooling technology is necessary to ensure the survival and economic prosperity of the billions of people living in tropical regions. Air-conditioning was considered the most important invention by the prime minister of Singapore.
Governments and manufacturers need to innovate to develop affordable and efficient AC technology. The average AC unit is 10 percent more efficient than it was in 2010, but policy and technology can double that efficiency and reduce cooling energy demand by 45 percent by the year 2050. The practice of dumping older models in poor countries should be restricted to drive up efficiency. Governments, along with philanthropic organizations and manufacturers, must invest in driving down the cost of higher-quality air conditioner models. Changing to alternative refrigerants can reduce cooling emissions.
It's time to build cleaner and equal energy systems. Demand for cooling is shifting to tropical regions that are ideal for solar power generation, and daytime temperatures correlate closely with solar peaks. AC units could be an important driver of demand when solar generation is at its peak. The financial viability of the renewable energy sector would increase as a result of more solar power being used during peak hours. Efforts to reduce overall cooling energy demand should be complemented by air conditioner deployment. Improving building efficiency and exploring nonelectric cooling technologies are some of the things this means.
The carbon budget doesn't have to be blow by cooling. It could be a driver of equity, economic growth and the transition to clean energy.
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