You expect some swings in a playoff series between two very good teams. The short series means twists and turns as teams exchange wins. Hockey and baseball both have a tendency to stick a little more than they can in say, baseball, where the next starting pitcher determines everything. A weakness is a defenseman whose side they want to enter the zone from or a way to move the goalie more often. That may happen in the first round.
For two teams that feel pretty evenly matched, the Leafs and Lightning haven't just matched wins. They've matched the big wins. They have taken turns laying each other down through four games. The series began with a win by the Leafs. In the second game, the Lightning came back with a win, but were up by five at one point. The Leafs took Game 3 by a score of 5-2. The Lightning scored a touchdown with a PAT in a win last night. Rarely do you see teams that are capable of stuffing the other one into a trash can one night and then being completely destroyed the next, let alone twice for each.
The numbers show that the Lightning have had the upper hand in all four games. The expected goals share swung to the other team in the four games, suggesting that the Leafs are matching the chances of the other team. They are doing it in every other game.
It's not easy to suggest that Jack Campbell isn't good enough to win four games against the defending champ. He has been sliced through twice. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been pilfered twice. It's possible that these offenses are too high-powered to be kept under wraps for more than one game at a time.
It could be that fatigue is playing a role. We looked at how scoring rose in the second half of the season, and speculated that the fatigue of a packed schedule was wearing away the will to play defense. The fact that the Lightning have played the maximum number of rounds in the past two years may make it difficult for them to put it together for more than one game. They won't do much good in this series because they've only been answering the Leafs. Someone is dragging ass every night when one team gets at least five power plays.
The fatigue levels could be related to the increased scoring. It is easier for teams to get up two or three goals this season because the opponent will open up. It would be harder for teams to fight back from multiple goals down because of fatigue.
It's not just the Leafs and the Bolts.
The league would prefer a few more close games. As the playoffs continue, they will probably get them, as the teams are stepping on their tongues even more.
It's rare that we're all behind Brad Marchand. The worst person you know made a great point.
We don't know for sure, and Marchand isn't saying, but it looks like he's calling Carolina's Tony DeAngelo a racist. Also a moron. The NHL doesn't want to insult the fans it has been terrified of for decades, so it fined Marchand for bringing to light that one of its players is a bridge troll.
We will end with this work of art from Sam Kerr, who was part of the team that won 4-2 over Man United in the WSL title game.
That was Kerr's second thunderbastard of the day.
It was a good day at work.
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