The Su 27s hit Snake Island.
The Ukrainian air force's best fighter jets just staged a daring raid on the Russian force occupying the strategic Snake Island.
The Russian garrison on the island in the western Black Sea has been targeted by the Ukrainian air campaign.
For at least a week now, Kyiv has been bombarding Snake Island with armed drones. Three air-defense systems on the island, as well as two Russian patrol boats and a landing craft along the shore, have been knocked out by the satellite-controlled drones with their 14-pound missiles.
The path for the twin-engine, supersonic Su-27s to strike on or before was cleared by destroying the air-defenses, along with any naval vessels attempting to reinforce the tiny island.
The Ukrainian air force dropped unguided bombs on the island as the single-seat Sukhois flew low. The Su-27s were heavily damaged after the drones did their work.
The raid is striking because the Ukrainian air force committed nearly a tenth of its remaining Su-27s to pull it off. The collapse of the Russian navy and support forces in the western Black Sea was underscored by the high-speed bombing. The Russian Black Sea Fleet's biggest and most powerful air-defense asset, the cruiser Moskva, was sunk by a Ukrainian anti-ship missile battery three weeks ago.
Russian forces are slowly moving west of Izium while Ukrainian forces are moving north around Kharkiv. The Russian army has yet to mount a sustainable offensive. The Russians are not actively losing the war in the east. Yet.
Even though the Ukrainian navy scuttled its flagship in order to prevent its capture, it still has the upper hand at sea. The air force along with the navy are fighting from land and winning.
Snake Island is small, but it matters. Many of the resources of the western Black Sea have a legal claim on the island. The Russian invasion began on the night of Feb. 23, and a small Ukrainian garrison was defending the island.
Moskva led a Russian fleet that attacked the next morning. Roman Hrybov, a member of the Ukrainian garrison, responded heroically when the Russians demanded their surrender.
Some of the Ukrainians were killed when the Russians opened fire. Hrybov was captured by a Russian landing force. The captives were swapped for Russians who had been captured by the Ukrainians.
The troops were reinforced on Snake Island. The landing craft carried a ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun and a Strela-10 surface-to-air missile system. The island perimeter was patrolled by gunboats. Moskva sailed off-shore.
Ukrainian forces defeated a large Russian force on the land. The war moved east and south. Moskva's sinking by a pair of Neptune missiles on April 13 marked a turning point. The commanders of the Black Sea Fleet pulled their ships farther from the coast.
The invitation was for the Ukrainian navy to begin their assault on Snake Island. The ZU-23 and the Strela were destroyed in a 10 day period. The landing craft was destroyed by the drones when the Russians sent in reinforcements.
The Black Sea Fleet and its army forces can no longer defend Snake Island. The air space was clear by Saturday.
The Su-27s flew in low, avoiding Russian air-defenses over the Black Sea and arriving unmolested over Snake Island. At least one major secondary explosion was triggered when they popped flares and dropped their bombs.
The air force lost more than a tenth of the planes it had before the war. Supplies of spare parts from NATO countries have helped Ukrainian technicians to keep the jets flying.
The Ukrainian air force had more flyable planes than it did two weeks prior, according to the U.S. Defense Department.
The planes have been put to good use. The main front line in eastern Ukraine has Su-25 attack jets back in action. Several of the older Su-24 swing-wing bombers got shot down in March and are in the middle of a fight again. The Su-27s strike on Snake Island was more than just the next step in the campaign to take back the island garrison.
The Ukrainian air force is still capable of mounting offensive operations. The Russian air force has an advantage in airframes, but it might be more capable of deep strikes right now.
It's not clear whether or not Kyiv will attempt a landing on Snake Island. Ukraine needs to regain control of the island in order to restore its pre-war economy. The landing force might have to come by helicopter with the capture of the Ukrainian fleet's sole amphibious ship.
That is risky. The Su-27s are fast. Helicopters are slow. The Russian garrison on Snake Island might be able to defeat a helicopter assault.
That could change. The Ukrainians are determined to take away Snake Island's defenses. They are succeeding. As they gain control over the military conditions on and around the island, their next move becomes a matter of choice and timing.
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