It has been 14 years since Iron Man scored the second-biggest opening weekend of all time, behind Spider-Man 20 years ago. It has been ten years since The Avengers solidified the MCU as a theatrical powerhouse, riding a wave of buzz to the first $200 million-plus domestic debut. Seven years ago, Age of Ultron opened with $191 million and pundits screamed "superhero fatigue!" Four years ago,Infinity War dethroned Star Wars: The Force Awakens with a $258 million launch. Audiences don't like superheros. They don't like comic book movies. They like superhero movies set in the ongoing Marvel Cinematic Universe. They show up for DC Comics movies as well.
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness made $90 million in North America on its first Friday, including $36 million in Thursday previews. 40% of the opening day figure is via previews, which may mean a relatively front-load opening weekend. The Sam Raimi/Michael Waldron flick will open with sad/shameful/pathetic $168 million this weekend, even if it frontloads like Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II. Doctor Strange's debut was 98% bigger than Captain America: Civil War's debut and Winter Soldier's debut was 8% bigger. That is the worst-case scenario. 2x gets it to $182 million, just above Iron Man 3 and Captain America: Civil War.
This isn't a #CanThisFranchiseBeSaved or a #SuperheroFatigue even with solid but not superlative reviews. The film earned more in one day than Eternals, Black Widow and Shang-Chi did in their opening weekends. It's guaranteed to be the second biggest Covid-era debut behind Spider-Man: No Way Home, and its $90 million Friday gross would be the fourth-biggest opening weekend of all time. It will open with a $205-$ 220 million opening weekend, which would be in line with Captain America: Civil War. Doctor Strange 2 is a stand-alone sequel and it is opening like a mythology episode.
The marketing promise of multiverse cameos, links to Disney+ and other elements made the film a must-see for the big picture. Doctor Strange 2 was positioned to open three years after the conclusion of the Infinity Saga because of the delays created by Covid and related issues. Doctor Strange opened just days before Donald Trump won the presidential election, but Benedict Cumberbatch's character has appeared in three other films. The answer as to whether these ensemble appearances would decrease or increase the value of a straight-up Doctor Strange sequel has been answered with a $91 million opening day.
Will word of mouth be affected by the film's stand-alone nature and not being a Civil War-level event? Will the passionate Wanda fans be put off by the early reveal that the Scarlet Witch has become a villain? Will parents be scared off by the film's violence and horror elements? Will any of these things matter in the long run? This is probably the most subversive movie since Iron Man 3. Nine years after it was released, it still earned over a billion dollars.
Iron Man 3, which was The Power of Nightmares for kids and whose Mandarin plot twist angered those wanting the genuine article, earned better reviews than the other movies in the series, and an A from Cinemascore. Doctor Strange 2 is the third movie in the MCU to earn below an A-. Even if the ceiling is still ridiculously high, the films may become more fan-centered and more vulnerable to what different fans expected. We are talking about a movie that could make $400 million worldwide this weekend, so it is a relative term.