Russia is still sliding towards a bond default in the coming weeks. It's up to the US Treasury whether it actually happens.

Russia avoided default at the very last moment on Tuesday, like Indiana Jones screeching under a closing door in The Temple of doom.

Russia could easily fall into default when its next bond payments are due in May because of one big obstacle.

Russia could be cut off by the US.

Western bondholders have only been allowed to receive payments from Russia because of a special rule put in place by the US Treasury.

The exemption allows US persons to receive interest, dividend, or maturity payments on debt or equity of the Russian government. Money has been allowed to leave Russia despite the sanctions suffocating the financial system.

The exemption runs out on May 25 in Moscow.

It must make coupon payments on a dollar bond and a euro bond on the same day.

The US Treasury may extend the carve-out. A Treasury spokesman wouldn't comment.

Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, told Insider that they may or may not extend the General License. It could be a few months. We will wait and see.

Moscow needs to cough up money.

The euro-denominated bond has a provision that allows Russia to pay in rubles. It will have to pay $71 million in dollars.

Russia will have to default on its debts if investors don't get their money. Until last week, a global committee of banks was poised to declare that Moscow had broken its debts.

Market pricing suggests that investors still think Russia is likely to default, according to an analyst at a financial data company.

The prices of credit-default swaps suggest that there is a 70% chance of a default within the year and an 85% chance within five years.

A high level of uncertainty continues to hang over the Russian market.

Russia claims a default would be artificial.

Russia has argued that Western sanctions are pushing towards a default even though it has the money to pay. The government has access to hundreds of billions of dollars of currency reserves despite sanctions, despite receiving significant revenue from energy exports.

Ash says that the argument isludicrous. You cannot ignore it.

Russia has to make almost $2 billion of bond payments this year, including the $109 million due May 27.

According to analysts at JP Morgan, it had around $39 billion of foreign-currency denominated bonds outstanding as of January.

There is a better than 50% chance of a recession in the next 12 months as inflation stays hot and consumer spending weakens, warns a strategist at Putnam Investments who says that commodities are the best way to protect your portfolio.