According to a draft opinion obtained by Politico, abortion rights could become a key issue in the November elections if the Supreme Court overturns Wade.

US-abortion-rights-protest

Protesters march past the US Capitol as they take part in the Women's March and Rally for Abortion.

AFP via Getty Images

The Washington Post reported that the Republicans are likely to try to pass a nationwide abortion ban if they win control of Congress.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee said in a memo that it wants to keep control of state legislatures in Colorado, Maine, Nevada, New Mexico and Minnesota.

The races for governor in Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be important as Democratic leaders fight to maintain control so they can veto any abortion bans passed by the GOP legislatures.

In Michigan and Wisconsin, AGs are up for reelection who will not enforce abortion bans if the ruling is overturned, and in other states, AG races are taking place.

Vermont voters will be asked this fall to approve a constitutional amendment that protects abortion, Kentucky has a measure that would state there is no right to abortion in the state constitution, and a Montana ballot initiative could expand personhood rights for fetuses.

In Kansas and Florida, the state supreme court seats are on the ballot, which is important because state courts there have previously said those state constitutions protect the right to abortion.

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The state of Kansas has a ballot measure on the August 2 primary that will determine if the state constitution should be amended to no longer protect abortion. It would be easier for the state to ban abortion if the measure succeeds. There is a chance that abortion-related measures could appear on the ballot in Colorado, Michigan and Oklahoma.

What We Don’t Know

Democratic strategists are hoping that if the court overturns the case, they will get more voters to the polls. A Morning Consult/Politico poll conducted Tuesday, after the draft opinion was leaked, found that a majority of respondents think it's important to vote for a candidate that supports abortion access, including a majority of Democrats. It's not clear whether a ruling in favor of abortion would reverse the trend of Republicans being more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats.

Key Background

The abortion rights movement came to the forefront this week after a draft opinion from the Supreme Court was published. The draft states that the court will overturn abortion rights entirely and leave the issue to the states or Congress. Before the draft opinion was released, states like Texas and Oklahoma passed abortion bans, while Democratic-led states like New Jersey and Connecticut took steps to shore up abortion rights.

If the Supreme Court overturns the Wade decision, what will happen?

How Americans Really Feel About Abortion: The Sometimes Surprising Poll Results.

If the Supreme Court overturns the Wade decision, Republicans will try to ban abortion nationwide.

Democrats want to use abortion rights in state legislative races.

Both parties are trying to weaponize abortion.