There are suggested plays and picks for every horse in the Kentucky Derby field.
The horses with morning-line odds are listed in order of post position.
It has been a long time since a Wood winner factored into the exacta, and I can't see this one ending it. While there is a new starting gate, post 1 is no bargain and while his late-running style will help mitigate some of the trouble, I am not sure the Derby sets up for a total closer. Ferdinand won in 1986 and only two rail runners have done it. He needs to make up about five lengths on White Abarrio and while he did beat Zandon by a nose in the Remsen Stakes, it is pretty safe to assume the latter has improved leaps and bounds. He could sneak into third or fourth.
Happy Jack won his first race at 24-1, but he has not been able to beat Messier or Taiba. He finished in front of seven horses in three races. I need to continue. He is a total nonfactor and should be close to 99-1.
Epicenter had a five-race win streak but was defeated in the Lecomte Stakes. He got away with an easy lead and wired the field at the Risen Star Stakes and then showed a different tactic from a stalking position, winning the Louisiana Derby.
7-2 odds is a ridiculously short price in this race, and my instinct is to try to beat him. The inside post may make him part of a decent pace up front. He had a better post and was at his home track, but he did not have any challenges up front. That was the first race that Zandon had run in 2 months. Steve Asmussen has accomplished a lot in racing other than winning the Kentucky Derby. He has 0-23 with four in-the-money finishes, including second choice Curlin from post position 2 in 2007. He can definitely win, but I am leaning toward the opposing side.
Jockey: Mickael Barzalona
He has zero chance of hitting the board, but he will ensure a lively pace as long as he doesn't start from the starting gate. If you use the all button for third or fourth in superfectas, he should be 99-1 come time.
I can see why some people would like it if it was a long shot. He had a nice win as a 2-year-old over Classic Causeway and White Abarrio and has an off-the-pace running style. He has been competitive against both Epicenter and Zandon, but at the same time, they went by him like he was standing still in the Blue Grass Stakes. There is also the question of price. Will he be 20-1? It sounds like Mattress Mack will bet him because he was sired by Runhappy. If that is the case, he should be a big underlay, so don't expect anything close to true odds. Ken McPeek has won a Triple Crown race with a long shot before, and I wouldn't fault anyone who uses him on a spread ticket and wants to be deep in the race. It will take a perfectly timed ride fromCorey Lanerie or a couple of main challengers to not fire and get some racing luck.
The first question about Messier and Taiba is whether you should treat them like Bob Baffert-trained horses. The answer seems to be yes in most conversations.
The next question is if Messier will follow in the footsteps of Authentic and Medina Spirit. He had a public workout in a horrible edition of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and was swallowed up by Taiba in a short field.
He will have to wire 19 others here because he beat the 4, 3 and 5 horses in his three wins. I am not feeling it, but I did not see it with either Medina or Authentic.
Kochi Shintani is a trainer.
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
The first winner of the UAE Derby will be me. If you are looking for a reason to like him, he is 3-for-3 on a fast track and should get a stalking trip. This is a huge step up in class, and I can't see him being involved in anything.
Todd Pletcher is a trainer.
Jockey: Luis Saez
I am interested in Charge It. The bad start in the Florida Derby might have been the reason for his off-the-pace trip. He has the right to be a pace factor in his second start against winners. If Saez does the right thing and sits off the speed, he will be on my ticket.
Ken McPeek is a trainer.
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
He won his first race as an odds-on favorite at Ellis Park, but that was the only dirt win he has. He has won four of five starts on the synthetics and turf. He had 9-2 odds against White Abarrio in the Holy Bull Stakes. Maybe he needed the race after three months off. Maybe he didn't like it. There is a good chance he is a turf/synthetic specialist. You can forgive him for the poor performance at Grants Pass Downs. If you can do that, you can get a horse that can finish at a monster price. He has a good bit of long-shot appeal so he will be on my tickets all the time.
Chad Brown is a trainer.
Jockey: Flavien Prat
At the Blue Grass Stakes, he pounced from off the pace and drew off. He will get over the surface quite nicely and his running style suggests there shouldn't be an issue with the 1 mile distance. He was able to get a good spot in the post draw because he has the best jockey in the country. One in-the-money finish from six starters is the only thing to knock Chad Brown's relative lack of success in the Kentucky Derby. I am sure there will be people out there who will not stomach betting on the Derby favorite. There is no suggestion that he will not run his race Saturday or that he will finish in the top three. He will be the center of my strategy.
Todd Pletcher is a trainer.
Jockey: Joe Bravo
This one has the look of a person running around the track. He should have been closer to the lead in both stakes tries. The blinkers come off for a horse that has been pretty punch-less. Pioneer of Medina was sent from the start to the Calder meet in Florida by the Pletcher barn.
Tim Yakteen is a trainer.
Jockey: Mike Smith
Do you want to see angry racing fans? Taiba will be in the winner's circle Saturday. He has the same owner and trainer as Medina Spirit, who was disqualified due to a medical violation last year. There is nothing against this horse, who is clearly talented, as evidenced by his two eye-popping wins to start his career. You have to ask why he has one work listed. Why did he end up on the vet's list? Is he being rushed to start by his owner? He is clearly the lightning rod starter here and every bit of me wants to throw him out based on the workout issues he has had in the past. There is part of me that thinks it is too obvious to throw him. He may be the most talented colt with the biggest upside because he will be a big impact. I don't want to miss out on a $25 winner, so I'll use him in a defensive/just-in-case fashion.
Antonio Sano is a trainer.
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
I really want to use Simplification with confidence, but I don't know if he'll be sent on the lead as he was before tiring in the Florida Derby, or if he'll be given the trip he had at the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He had a bounce after his career-best finish at the Fountain of Youth. He had excuses in both races against White Abarrio, so I don't think he should be double the price. At 20-1, I am happy to invest and find out if he is good enough.
John is a trainer.
Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
He won his first race in October for $30K. He's a dead closer and while he has clunked up for pieces at Oaklawn, I just can't see him better than fourth here for a trainer who hasn't done much in graded stakes, and he was easily beaten by Cyberknife.
The trainer is Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
He won the Holy Bull Stakes and the Florida Derby, but he's not as well known here. I like him because he is versatile and he may have just developed from 2 to 3 in the care of Saffie Joseph and that race can be thrown out. He has made up six lengths on Smile Happy, but can he beat the likes of Zandon? He can win and will be on my tickets.
Brad Cox is a trainer.
Jockey: Florent Geroux
I enjoy Cyberknife. I had him in the Arkansas Derby. I am not expecting anything close to 20-1. He took the blinkers off in his first try against the winners. His Speed Figures are a little light, but he probably hasn't reached the bottom yet. It could be that he doesn't have it in him. It is just a matter of whether Florent Geroux can go off the pace from Post 16 or not. I think the answer is yes. He is a likely winner Saturday. The winner of last year's race was declared after Medina Spirit was disqualified.
Brian Lynch is a trainer.
Jockey: Julien Laparoux
Classic Causeway will not be around at the end. The goal is to not finish last, so if he doesn't send, then throw out any predictions you've made. It will be exciting for the owners to say they had the lead in the Derby. He won't be on my tickets in any spot other than an all button for third.
Brad Cox is a trainer.
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
The second of the three Brad Cox runners will be the longest price and the farthest back of the bunch. Two of his three wins came at Turfway, he hasn't really been close against Epicenter or Tiz the Bomb, and he didn't beat anyone at Keeneland. He has a trainer who can pop at a price and he should get a nice pace. It will not be enough to crack the exacta, but I wouldn't be shocked if he did.
Brad Cox is a trainer.
Jockey: Manny Franco
Zozos is the fastest. He doesn't have a chance of winning or being around after 10 furlongs, but he holds the key to helping the other two Cox runners, and his first stakes try was pretty good. On the first Saturday in May, an outside draw and send into a contest isn't a recipe for victory. If he does his job well, it will affect the chances of Cyberknife. This one will be in some big sprint races this summer.
D. Wayne Lukas is a trainer.
Jockey: Luis Contreras
If you are considering using this horse with zero speed from post 20, I have good news for you.
Marks said to charge it to win.
Marks picked Cyberknife to win.
There were 8 and 16 on top, followed by 10, 3, 6, 12 and 7.
There are many favorites in the field of 20, including Epicenter, but they won't provide value. Look for horses with a good front foot, meaning they are not off the pace at the turn, and that have a good post -- middle of the pack.
I will be betting on two horses to win. Luis Saez is the jockey on Charge It. Even though this will be only his third race, he is starting to peak because he is his favorite 3-year-old. This horse has a great post position and will only get better as the race goes on. The question is if he can handle the crowd on Derby day.
Florent Geroux is the jockey for Cyberknife. Cyberknife has been training well over the past three months and they are coming off a win in the Arkansas Derby five weeks ago. Even though he drew the 16th post, he has the speed to be in a good position.
Even though Bob Baffert won't be in attendance, I will use both of his horses in exactas and trifectas. I believe that the horses will be ready to compete on Saturday, despite the fact that Tim Yakteen is Baffert's assistant.
I like Crown Pride. He seems to have found the formula to win in the US on dirt. Crown Pride has been in the U.S. for a while.
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