Pandemic killed 15M people in first 2 years, WHO excess death study finds

According to an analysis of global excess deaths released by the World Health Organization, an estimated 14.91 million people died in 2020 and 2021.

The estimate with a 95 percent confidence interval is larger than the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 by official counts. Estimates of excess death try to capture the true toll of the Pandemic. The number of deaths that occurred during a time period is compared to the number of deaths that are expected to occur in that period. Historical differences, such as fewer traffic deaths during the Pandemic due to movement and health restrictions, can be attributed to such modeling.

The aim of excess death estimates is to capture unreported deaths and deaths caused by COVID-19. People dying of preventable, non-COVID conditions can be included because they delayed or avoided health care because they were afraid of becoming infections, or because their healthcare system was overburdened with COVID-19 patients and unable to provide optimal care.

These sobering data show the impact of the Pandemic and the need for all countries to invest in more resilient health systems that can sustain essential health services during crises, including stronger health information systems.

The estimates can show the countries that struggled to respond to the epidemic.

India delayed the release of the WHO analysis for months because of a dispute over estimates. Nearly a third of the world's total death toll from the Pandemic will be in India, according to the WHO. In that period, India only reported 481,500 deaths.

India, Russia, Indonesia, the US, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Turkey, Egypt, and Iran accounted for the majority of excess deaths. The analysis found that older adults accounted for more excess deaths than males, and that males accounted for more excess deaths than females. The data can be found here.

The US excess death toll was estimated by the analysis to reach nearly 932,500 by the end of 2021. The country reported a little over 848,000 deaths directly caused by COVID-19 for that period, while the reported deaths now stand at 997,000. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has an excess death estimate for the Pandemic.