Where are all the aliens, and why haven't we heard from them? The questions at the center of the Fermi Paradox are simple. In a new paper, a pair of researchers ask how long it will take to hear from another civilization.
Their answer was 400,000 years.
A species that has only been around for a couple hundred thousand years and only discovered farming 12,000 years ago is 400,000 years old. If we want to hear from alien civilizations, we need to keep this human experiment going for 400,000 years. That is according to new research into communicating extraterrestrial intelligent civilization.
The paper is titled The Number of PossibleCETIs within OurGalaxy and the Communication Probability among TheseCETIs. The paper was published in a journal.
One of the most puzzling questions for humans is whether our existence is unique. That doesn't stop us.
Humans on Earth are the only data point we have for studying other civilizations. Many researchers have used rigorous scientific guidelines to tackle the question as a thought experiment. A study from 2020 concluded that there are at least 36CETIs in the Milky Way.
How long we might have to wait to hear from aCETIs is tied up with how many there are. How manyCETIs exist in the universe? This is a difficult question. The authors write that we can only learn from a single point.
This is where the Drake Equation can be found. The Drake Equation tries to estimate how manyCETIs there may be based on our knowledge of the Milky Way. Critics have explained the flaws of the Drake Equation. The number of civilizations it calculates isn't reliable because some of its variables are little more than speculation. The Drake Equation is more of a thought experiment than a calculation. It gets us started when we start somewhere.
The authors of the new study got started too.
The Drake equation is used in most studies on this problem.
You are not alone if you are skeptical about any of this. We don't know how many other civilizations there are. We are not knowledgeable enough. Studies like this are part of the ongoing conversation we have with ourselves. We can think about the context of our civilization with each one.
If we don't know how many CETIs there are, how did they come up with 400,000 years?
The researchers are not the first to ask this question. Some of the previous scientific efforts to understand the incidence of other civilizations in the Milky Way are outlined in their paper. A 2020 study estimates that there are 36CETIs in the Milky Way. The number was derived from calculations involving star formation histories, metallicity distributions, and the likelihood of stars hosting Earth-like planets. The paper states that the subject of extraterrestrial intelligent and communicative civilizations will remain in the domain of hypothesis until a positive detection is made.
Some of the same thinking is carried forward by this study. Two parameters are poorly understood. The first is about the number of planets that are suitable for life and the number of planets that evolve into aCETI. The second stage of a host star's evolution is when aCETI would be born.
Each of these parameters was given a variable by the researchers. The stage of the host star's evolution required is (F), and the probability of life appearing and evolving into a CETI is (f c). Song and Gao ran a series of Monte Carlo simulations using different values. They came up with two scenarios: optimistic and pessimistic.
The optimistic scenario used the values of 25% and c. A star has to be 25% into it's lifetime before it can be called aCETI. There is only a small chance of aCETI appearing on each planet. It sounds like a lot, but it isn't when spread throughout the galaxy at different times. We need to survive for another 2000 years to achieve two-way communication. It almost sounds like it.
The optimistic scenario makes the Universe seem friendly and inhabited by other welcoming civilizations. Maybe some of them are already talking to each other, and we need to join in.
For the pessimistic scenario.
In the optimistic scenario, 75% and c are equal. A star can host a CETI until it is much older, and the chance of any single planet hosting it drops to a minuscule percentage. Where does this leave us?
The calculation produces only a small amount ofCETIs in the sky. We would need to survive another 400,000 years to have two-way communication with them. Star Trek starts in the mid-22nd century.
The Great Filter comes here. The Great Filter is the difference between life and advanced civilization.
It has been proposed that the lifetime of civilizations is very likely self-limiting due to many potential disruptions, such as population issues, nuclear annihilation, sudden climate change, rogue comets, ecological changes.
The values of C and F are full of unknowns, according to the scientists. The paper and others that tackle the same question are more helpful than solid results. We don't know any of this stuff, but we have to explore it. It's part of human nature, and it's uncertain what proportion of planets can give birth to life, and the process of life evolving into a CETI and being able to send signals to space is highly unpredictable.
Will humanity ever meet another civilization? It is one of the most compelling questions, and it is almost certain that nobody alive today will ever have an answer to it. We have to exist with other CETIs and communicate with them. It is1-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-6556 We will never know.
It is possible that humanity will survive a long time. Humans will flee to Mars or somewhere else if Earth is rendered uninhabitable. Would a Muskian outpost on a long-dead planet qualify as a CETI? We like to think that other civilizations have been able to overcome problems. Will that be true? The descendants of a once-proud civilization that beamed with confidence until the Great Filter struck will be the first CETI.
Who knows? Our descendants are likely to be much different from modern humans in the future if we ever meet another technological species.
The Great Filter will stop us from finding an answer.
If humanity needs a goal, something to cling to that can keep hope alive.
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