Climate change could cause more than 15,000 new cases of mammals transmitting viruses to other mammals over the next 50 years, according to a study. One of the first to predict how global warming will shift wildlife habitats and increase encounters between species that can swap pathogens is it.
Zoonotic transmission is a process in which a coronaviruses passes from a wild animal to a human. The study warns that a predicted rise in viruses jumping between species could pose a serious threat to human and animal health.
The study is a critical first step in understanding the future risk of climate and land-use change on the next Pandemic, says Kate Jones, who models interactions between ecosystems and human health at University College London.
When species meet for the first time because of rising temperatures, the research predicts that a lot of the new virus transmission will happen. It projects that this will occur most often in high elevation areas of Africa and Asia, and in areas that are densely populated by humans, such as Africa's Sahel region, India and Indonesia. The number of first-time meetings between species will double by 2070 if the planet warms by no more than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures this century.
Gregory Albery, a disease ecologist at Georgetown University in Washington DC, is a co-author of the study.
Albery and his colleagues ran simulations for five years to make their predictions. They used models of virus transmission and species distribution to focus on mammals because of their relevance to human health.
As the planet warms, the team built a model to predict where mammals would move. The model predicts the probability of a virus jumping between species for the first time by taking into account where species might meet as their habitats shift and how closely related they are.
The modelling seems to be technically perfect, says a global- change ecologist at the University of Alcal, Spain, although he points out that forecasting exercises such as this sometimes need to include unrealistic assumptions. The breadth and scope of the research and its ability to identify which parts of the world might be most at risk stand out.
As the climate changes, the researchers had to assume how far and wide the species would spread. Factors such as whether mammals can adapt to local conditions are difficult to predict.
The study found that bats are projected to be involved in viral transmission. About 20% of mammals are made up of bats, which are thought to be part of the origins of COVID-19. Bats are less likely to experience barriers to shifting their habitats because they can fly.
Predicting the risk of viral jumps from mammals into humans is more difficult than Jones thinks.
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There is a disease in deer. What does that mean for the outbreak?
Increased investment in health care or a virus being unable to transmit it to humans are some of the factors that could reduce the risk to human health.
There is no time to waste. It is happening and it is not preventable even in the best climate.
Even though some increase in disease transmission is inevitable, Albery and Colin Carlson say that it is not an excuse for not taking action. The researchers call on governments and the international community to improve the monitoring of wild animals and zoonotic diseases, particularly in future hot spots such as southeast Asia. They say that improving health infrastructure is essential.
As people begin to prepare for and adapt to global warming, most efforts are focused on activities such as reinforcing sea walls. Pandemic preparedness and disease surveillance are part of climate- change adaptation.
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The article was first published on April 28.
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