The Sudden Economic Stop

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by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2020 02:54:00 PM

I just spoke with a tile sub-contractor who mostly does remodels. He was completely booked for the next several months, and all of his jobs have cancelled for the next 8 weeks.

He has a great reputation – and a good network – and he has been busy for years. These cancellations caught him by surprise. He will have to layoff his workers until he finds work.

This story is happening all across the country. This is a sudden stop for the US economy like nothing I’ve ever seen.

It might take a week or two to show up in the weekly unemployment claims report, but we are going to see a sharp increase in claims. Since this week was the BLS reference week for the March job report, the crisis will probably not have a huge impact on the March report.

We don’t know how long this will last, but China is only now slowly recovering – so this might last for several months or even longer. Stay healthy!