Buy Ramkrishna Forgings; target of Rs 620: HDFC Securities

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HDFC Securities’ research report on Ramkrishna Forgings

Ramkrishna Forgings reported a weak 4Q as the slowdown in the domestic CV segment impacted volumes. The domestic tonnage was lower due to 1) the decline in M/HCV sales, which were down 5% YoY 2) the adverse impact of the change in product mix, due to higher sales of lower tonnage vehicles (post the change in axle load norms). We are lowering our earnings by ~12% over FY20/21E to factor in the above. Our revised TP is Rs 620 as we value the company at 14x PE on FY21 earnings. We have a BUY rating on the stock. The companies’ initiative of expanding its export customer base (in Europe and USA) will partially offset the weakening demand from existing customers.

Outlook

RK Forgings has improved its product mix post the commissioning of its 12,500T press. The balance sheet has strengthened post the capital raise, with gearing ratios now at ~1x. We have a BUY recommendation on the stock.

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