What happened to the election?

On March 17 I noted that I'd made a $100 bet with a friend that Donald Trump would lose his bid for a second term come November. My reasons were these:

Now that Trump has bungled the handling of the epidemic, makes daily statements about it so palpably stupid that even a "deplorable" can see through them, and gives himself a ten out of ten in handling the crisis, I think his chances of victory are even slimmer. And that's on top of the economy, which is heading south so fast it will reach Antarctica before the summer.

Since then Trump has screwed up even more, repeatedly making dumb and even harmful assertions ("I might take chloroquine"), backtracking (pews filled by Easter!), praising himself, denigrating others (including governors) and generally looking like the narcissistic moron he is. It's on view daily. And yet. . . his approval rating is as high as it's ever been since right after he was elected: here's the latest from FiveThirtyEight (click on screenshot to see more):

He's declared himself a "war president", clearly to bolster his popularity, despite the fact that he claimed that the virus was no big deal and the country would get over it quickly. (Then, of course, he backtracked, but now is sending mixed messages, still dangling the possibility of pew-filled churches on Easter). Easter is a week from today.

So, have you heard anything from Biden lately? I thought not. And it's not really Joe's fault, as anything beside coronavirus gets pushed from the news. On last night's NBC News, for instance, the entire show was devoted to the pandemic, except for the obligatory "feel good" segment at the end (which is usually connected with the pandemic as well). That's not the fault of the news: the virus is pretty much what we want to hear about.

But we've forgotten that there's an election in November, and it's our only chance to heave the moron President out on his tuchas. People are going to forget about Biden, and that, combined with Trump being a President (however dreadful) in a crisis, would seem to bolster the chance of an Orange Man reelection. I'm worried: can we, or our republic, really stand another four years of this man? (Remember that Biden is not a man who excites me, but he's surely better than Trump.)

Well, have your say in the comments, and here's another poll:

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I'm nervous.