China's naval expansion seems unstoppable. New warships are being built at an incredible rate, radically modernizing the fleet and adding new capabilities. But the ongoing coronavirus pandemic could slow the momentum.

This image Analysis of photo of Chinese shipyard in December 2019 illustrates the scale of China's ... [+]

H I SUTTON, WITH PERMISSION FROM @LOONGNAVAL

Multiple shipyards are building large numbers of air defense destroyers, frigates and even aircraft carriers. But work in yards has slowed as workers stay away due to the virus. Reports indicate that civilian construction has been impacted, which may be an indicator of the situation in naval yards.

In its March 16 situation report global marine insurer North reports that "the efficiency of the shipyards in Zhoushan decreased substantially." Offshore Magazine reported that "staffing and supply shortages in China, ... will in turn delay project deliveries by at least three to six months." Reuters also recently reported that "ship deliveries have been hit as yards in China struggle."

There were reports that many shipyards were closed earlier this year and that state-run yards were slowly getting back to operations. The exact level of productivity is difficult to gauge however. It seems unrealistic to suggest that naval construction will not be impacted.

The scale of Chinese naval expansion is impressive. China launched its first Assault Carrier last year and a second is already nearing completion. These large ships are roughly equivalent to the USS America in U.S. Navy Service. These are being built in Shanghai. An aircraft carrier, China's third, is also under construction on the outskirts of the city.

The first of the new Type-055 Renhai class of cruisers was commissioned into service in January. This ship, described as a large destroyer by the Chinese Navy, is significantly larger than the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burke class AEGIS destroyer. And it's not alone - at least six more are in various stages of construction or testing. Again, many in Shanghai.

How much impact a few months lost productivity will have on the expansion is difficult to judge. For sure it would affect resource intensive activities in construction. Chinese warships already generally spend longer being fitted out than their U.S. equivalents. And delays on ships being fitted out could have knock-on impacts on other queuing to be launched.

But it is hard to imagine that the virus will be a substantial setback for the overall plan. Witting in the U.S. Naval Institute, retired Rear Admiral Michael A. McDevitt recently projected that by 2035 China will have the world's largest blue water navy. It's difficult to argue with this, coronavirus or not.

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