The coronavirus case count in India has reached 74 at the time of writing this article and this rapid increase has got the state governments worried.
After Kerala and Jammu and Kashmir, the Delhi government has issued an advisory to shut down all cinema halls till March 31 as a precautionary measure.
"Delhi circuit is almost 15 percent to 18 percent of Hindi box office collections. This will have a big negative impact on multiplexes. The larger impact will be on PVR as almost 7.5 percent of its screens are in Delhi whereas Inox has around three percent of its screens in Delhi," said Karan Taurani, Vice President, Elara Capital.
"Expect Hindi box office to decline 10 percent YoY in Q4FY20," he stated.
While Kerala's box contribution is around 1 percent to 2 percent, regional cinema with SPI/PVR, in particular, will be negatively impacted, he observed.
Taurani also expects other states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal to shut down cinemas if the number of cases intensifies.
"Occupancy rates in cinemas have been stable at 20 percent over the last one week. In case the occupancy rates fall below 17 percent, it is better for multiplexes to shut property as occupancy below 17 percent leads to losses. Hence, we believe that if larger movies are postponed and if occupancy falls below a threshold, cinema chains may announce shut down given safety issues," he said.
Akshay Kumar-starrer Sooryavanshi which was scheduled to release on March 27 has also been postponed. However, the new date is not announced.
Kumar on March 12 took to social media to make a formal announcement. He shared a note from Rohit Shetty's production company - Rohit Shetty Picturez - which read, "Sooryavanshi is an experience that we have created for you with over a year of dedication and hard work and the response we received for its trailer was nothing less than electrifying."
"We have been as excited as you are to present the film to you and your family, but due to the recent outburst of the COVID -- 19 (Coronavirus), we, the makers, have decided to postpone the release of your film Sooryavanshi, keeping in mind the health and safety of our beloved audience," the statement further read.
According to Taurani, Sooryavanshi's release date could be postponed to April 10. "This will have a spillover impact as 83 Biopic starring Ranveer Singh which was slated to release on April 10 which will get further postponed," he said.
"Irrfan Khan's Angrezi Medium which is releasing tomorrow will see a big negative impact on collection. We expect a spillover impact to follow for the other large movies slated to release over the next three months," added Taurani.
According to him, the performance of Q4FY20 will be poor due to Sooryavanshi getting postponed and other content not doing well except Tahnaji: The Unsung Warrior.
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