Nigel Farage's Brexit party is considering whether to pull out of hundreds of seats in Britain's forthcoming general election, in what could prove a game-changer to prime minister Boris Johnson's hopes of winning a parliamentary majority.
The insurgent party, which supports leaving the EU without a deal, is deciding whether to contest all of Britain's parliamentary seats - as pledged by Mr Farage when he formed the movement earlier this year - or concentrate its efforts on a much smaller number of targeted constituencies in Brexit-supporting areas.
Pollsters have cautioned that if the Brexit party runs a full slate of candidates, Mr Farage could split the Leave vote in scores of marginal seats, undermining Mr Johnson's pro-Brexit Conservative party and potentially handing victory to pro-Remain candidates from Labour or the Liberal Democrats. But if the Brexit party narrows its focus to Leave-supporting seats currently represented by Labour MPs, it could significantly help the Tories.
Party insiders acknowledged it was a very difficult decision, as the outcome of the election could rest on its candidates.
Prospective Brexit party candidates are still waiting to hear whether they are standing in the vote, expected to be on December 12. A message to all candidates on Wednesday morning said "Important. Please all go DARK on social media. DO NOT respond to any questions about where we [are] standing, what the strategy or plan is from now on. Things will be made clear . . . very soon."
If Nigel [Farage] takes a tactical, pragmatic approach on where to run to help deliver Brexit he'll be rewarded by voters
Arron Banks, founder of Leave.EU
It is even unclear whether Mr Farage himself will stand. The Brexit party leader has told friends he may decide not to run, despite reports that he will contest the Essex seat of Thurrock.
Mr Farage's allies said if he stood as an MP - in what would be his eighth attempt to enter the House of Commons - it would leave him locked into one constituency and possibly curtail his appeal nationally. "Much of the Brexit party vote rests on his personal following," said one party insider. But a Brexit party spokesperson dismissed the suggestion of Mr Farage not standing in the election as "wild speculation".
If the party decides not to contest all constituencies it will raise speculation that an informal agreement has been struck with the Conservatives. Allies of Mr Farage have previously said there have been efforts by the Tories to "buy him off" with a peerage in the House of Lords, but he has insisted he is not open to such blandishments.
Since Mr Johnson struck his revamped Brexit withdrawal deal with the EU last week, Mr Farage's party has also been divided over whether to support the prime minister's strategy or continue to campaign to leave the EU without a deal.
Arron Banks, founder of the Leave.EU campaign - which is credited with helping to win the 2016 referendum - and a close confidant of Mr Farage, urged the Brexit party not to run a full slate but to take a "strategic view" on where to run candidates.
"It's not as simple as whether the Brexit party should stand down across the whole country . . . the national polls say one thing, but there is a different dynamic in each seat that has to be considered. If Nigel takes a tactical, pragmatic approach on where to run to help deliver Brexit he'll be rewarded by voters," he said.
Mr Banks added that his pro-Brexit campaign group is producing a "tactical voting guide" to help voters decide which candidate to back if they wish to elect a Brexit supporter to the House of Commons.
"Voting for a Brexiter isn't as straightforward as you'd think. You have to remember that the Brexit party can actually help the Tories by taking votes away from Labour in some seats, like [Conservative party grandee] Graham Brady's. But in others like Cornwall or Devon, they aren't going to get much traction, so what's the point?"
John Longworth, Brexit Party MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber, also urged the party to be "sensible" and focus its resources on pro-Leave constituencies where it will have the best chance of returning its first representatives to the Commons.
"I think we ought to be targeted in terms of the number of seats that we decide to address," he told The Times. "I can imagine that might be 20 or 30. They would be entirely winnable then if you poured all your resources into them. You probably would not get any more if you concentrated on the 600. But you would also get a better result for Brexit too."
A spokesperson for the Brexit party said its plans would be unveiled at its campaign launch, which is expected to take place on Friday. "We continue to wish to have the broadest collection of clean Brexiters - in line with the result of the 2016 referendum - in parliament as possible to ensure a clean Brexit."
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