The arsenal of dangerous impacts delivered by hurricanes is expected to get more dangerous as climate change warms the planet.
Flooding from storm surge is one of the most worrisome things.
Waves pushed by tropical storms and hurricanes will travel farther inland due to rising seas. That inland march would expose a larger swath of the U.S. coast to the kind of flooding unleashed during HurricanesKatrina and Sandy and put more people at risk of drown.
An NPR analysis found that sea rise alone could expose 720,000 more people to flooding in the decades to come.
The impact of storm surge could grow as a result of three landmark hurricanes.
Flooding from storm surge that used to linger along the coast travels miles farther inland and becomes deeper in all three regions. Hospitals and schools that often provide shelter would be at risk of being flooded when the sea rise reached three feet.
Brian Haus is a researcher at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science who studies the damaging power of storm surge.
The power of wind is different from flood waters from rain or overflowing canals. A wall of water is pushed onto the shore by strong winds when a storm makes landfall.
Haus said it was a big spike when a wave hit. Structural failure is caused by repetitive shock loading.
The first official surge forecasts were issued by the National Hurricane Center in the year of Hurricane Irma.
The storm surge killed more people than anything else. They went on a campaign to figure out how to do something in a way that people understand.
The surge model that the center has improved over the years provides a more detailed projection of how water moves over land.
You can see where the water is. We can'tlocate your mailbox, but you have a good idea of what risk you might have to contend with.
Miami was put in the crosshairs of one of the most powerful storms on record five years ago.
Brian Haus, a researcher at the University of Miami, said that everything east of U.S. 1 would be under nine feet of water. It would have been the worst-case scenario for everything in the county.
The crowded coast was spared from the worst of the flooding when the storm shifted to the left.
What if it hadn't stopped? Projections from the National Hurricane Center show that the scenario Haus feared could become dramatically worse. It's an urgent threat for the low-lying southern part of the county, where fast-growing suburbs are squeezed between two national parks.
If the center of the storm had made it to Miami-Dade County, the National Hurricane Center would have modeled the depth and extent of flooding it would have caused.
The latest sea level rise projections for the coming years were added by the center's storm surge chief.
Flooding already at lethal levels would top nine feet as waters rise. The number of people at risk could double by 2080 if the sea level rise projection is accurate.
South Florida has been struck by storms or hurricanes many times since Hurricane Andrew hit in 1992. Construction in the county has been going on for a long time.
tomato fields and marshes were replaced by development. The map below shows the percentage of developed lots built since Andrew. More than 44,000 parcels have structures.
Almost a third of the construction is at risk of flooding from a storm. Almost two-thirds of the newly developed lots will be at risk by 2080.
The U.S. Air Force base and nuclear power plant are critical. The plant's reactor is 20 feet above sea level, but the roads needed to get diesel fuel and other supplies to a shuttered plant would be under more than nine feet of water.
Black residents in South Florida are three times more likely to be flooded than the rest of the population.
One of the places that would be hardest hit by the surge would be the small village of Cutler Bay. The first named storm of this year's Hurricane season submerged parts of the town, including CraigEmmanuel's street.
"You went to sleep on dry land, woke up and the streets were flooded, and you almost missed your son's fifth grade graduation," said the father. I don't believe anyone was prepared for it to be that high.
Flooding in the area could be between six feet and nine feet deep in four decades. The historic black community is more than five miles from the coast.
That type of flooding can make it difficult to plan for evacuees. It would take about a day to evacuate coastal neighborhoods. The time it takes to evacuate inland communities more than triples.
The mayor of Cutler Bay helped found the village in 2005 in order to recover from Andrew, a storm he hid in his garage during.
Back then, we didn't have as many people. He said that we did not have as much concrete back then. You're up to your shoulders in water, because Andrew had 165 mile an hour winds. Do you do anything? There's nothing to do but sit and wait.
Sandy was the most destructive storm of the year. About 2 million people were without electricity in New York City after it damaged or destroyed hundreds of buildings. Damage was estimated at $19 billion and 43 people were killed in the city. According to the city, the preparation and response was the largest of its kind.
It could be worse in the future.
According to the National Hurricane Center's model, the extent and depth of storm surge will grow dramatically in the five boroughs. The number of people in New York who are directly threatened by flooding could double from 207,000 in 2020 to 468,000 in 2080.
The New York City Housing Administration left tens of thousands of low-income New Yorkers without power after the storm. More than 24,000 apartments were in the path of the storm surge, and other types of affordable housing were also affected.
The Washington Houses in East Harlem have a resident's association. She remembers seeing the floods around the hospital.
She said that Sandy was frightening. When you see a hospital going under water, you're like, "Oh my God, what's going on here?"
Climate change and future storms will flood more low-income New Yorkers' apartments. A Sandy-like storm could flood more than 50 NYCHA developments by 2080.
One study projects three times the number of low-income homes to be at risk of flooding.
According to a professor at Sarah Lawrence College, people in affordable housing are more exposed to flooding.
Disasters leave a legacy that can be difficult to adapt to. Parts of Metro North Plaza and the East River Houses were damaged by Sandy. Repairs and upgrades which are still in progress were funded by FEMA.
The Washington Houses were outside of Sandy's main inundation zone so they weren't eligible for the same FEMA funding. According to the NHC data, a similar storm could bring flooding to the development's door as early as 2050.
The upscale neighborhoods of Brooklyn are at risk. The El Pinguino oyster bar is located on Greenpoint Avenue, a few steps from the waterfront.
The owner dreads the rain. Padilla can dig about six inches deep in his basement.
After signing the lease for his first restaurant, Alameda, he was flooded with six feet of water and sewage, costing him tens of thousands of dollars. He will not leave until the flood waters chase him from his home and business. He has no idea where else to live.
The city is New York. It is difficult to find a place to go. It feels like people will live here until the river comes.
The neighborhoods of Greenpoint and Brooklyn are booming with development. In the past decade, the local community board estimates that 40,000 people have moved to the waterfront areas. Despite sea level rise, this property is one of the most valuable in the city.
Over the next 30 years, tide and storm surge will cause damaging flooding here at a rate that will be more than 10 times as often as it is today, according to other data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.
The city, state and federal government are being urged to prepare for storms. New Yorkers shouldn't be trapped in powerless, hazardous apartments and houses in the event of a storm, according to some. The time to leave is now, according to others.
Dr. Klaus Jacob is a climate expert at the Columbia University Climate School. The coastal areas need to be used as a barrier.
Washington, D.C. and federal officials decided to close the nation's capital because of Hurricane Isabel. 350,000 federal workers were told to stay home when the Metro trains and buses stopped running due to the storm.
The storm blew into the District in the middle of the night with winds of up to 65 miles per hour.
The previous storm surge record was set in 1933. According to the National Weather Service, the flooding and downed trees caused an estimated $125 million in damages in D.C.
Most of the flooding occurred on the waterfront parks near the National Mall and the White House.
Climate change will lead to more storm surge flooding as the Anacostia and Potomac rivers rise. In 2080, with sea level three feet higher or more, most homes and businesses will be dry.
According to the National Hurricane Center's storm surge models, just 2,100 Washingtonians are likely to be threatened by an Isabel-like storm in 2080, up from 600 people in 2020. It's a small group of people in a large city.
The federal park building was built 150 years ago.
David Ramos is a professor at American University and has studied and mapped Washington's historic waterways.
D.C. planners did not intend to build in a degree of resilience to the waterfront. There was a giant, smelly mudflat near the White House when the Army Corps of Engineers dredged the silted up river in the late 1870s.
The dredged up muck created miles of new shoreline. The reclaimed land is the most at risk for flooding.
The results of the project can be seen in the green spaces of the National Mall.
Most of the American cities that had a lot of landfill built housing or businesses on it. The majority of the new land in D.C. became parks.
Historian John Wennersten, who has authored several books about D.C. waterways, says there was no thought about resilience at the time. Between 1890 and 1920, more land space was created for the development of "monumental Washington." It didn't offer a lot of protection against storms and tides.
The federal government built a levee system to protect agency headquarters in low-lying areas.
D.C. is located on the fall line, which is the place where the coastal plain transitions to higher hills. The city is built on the uphill side.
In Washington, the few riverfront areas that aren't parks are among the fastest growing neighborhoods as developers turn old industrial areas into luxury apartments and condominiums.
The D.C. Department of Energy and Environment believes that the city will continue to build. A lot of those areas need to be used for housing and commerce. The river is a very desirable place for people to be.
The number of buildings subject to flood-proofing requirements will double as a result of the city's updating of floodplain regulations.
While D.C. was lucky in terms of storm surge flooding, it is still at high risk from other types of flooding that are being made worse by climate change.
The worst floods in recent years have been caused by interior flooding when a storm dumps more rain on the city than the storm drain can handle. Flooding can happen miles away from a river and there is little to no warning.
Severe interior flooding has happened in D.C. in the last three years.
Climate modeling shows that this type of flooding will only get worse. A 15-year storm by 2080 is more than six times as likely to occur as a 100 year storm.
In a worst-case scenario, floods could coincide with a storm surge, and even with flood waters coming from upstream in the Potomac Watershed. The entire city shut down before the storm in 2003 because officials were prepared for that. Less than an inch of rain fell after Isabel passed through.
Climate and Hurricane experts say the nation needs to seriously rethink how it lives in vulnerable areas. The planners spared the capital. Catastrophic hurricanes have not slowed growth in areas where risk becomes more dangerous and costly. Future sea rise could double the number of structures in the path of flooding.
The hardest part of disaster planning is that it is hard to imagine. I think a lot about this scenario. That is not how most people live.
That's where the center believes it can help. The goal of the agency is to replicate the modeling along the entire U.S. coast.
The hazard of storm surge will be changed by raising the sea level. It is if it looks frightening.
There is a methodology.
The projections of storm surge were made by the National Hurricane Center. Depending on how climate change unfolds, models of storm surge can be provided by the researchers. The storm surge models were used for the analysis and maps in the story. NPR excluded storm surge flooding of less than 1 foot from the maps and analysis because they were within the margin of error. The National Ocean Service has a sea level rise technical report.
The track for the storm is based on a forecast.
NPR used 2020 Census data to estimate how many people would be directly threatened by a storm surge. The analysis only looked at the flooding within Miami-Dade County, New York City, and the District of Columbia, and does not take into account population growth, migration, or Mitigation efforts.
NPR used data from the Florida Geographic Data Library and the University of Florida to determine the percentage of lots developed since Hurricane Andrew. Parcel data was joined to building footprints created by Microsoft.
The NYCHA data was downloaded.
Building footprints data from Microsoft is included in the base maps for the other regions.
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