Boris Johnson's Brexit deal is opposed by Northern Ireland unionists who say it creates a new Irish Sea border that weakens the union with Great Britain. Although Dublin insists it has never approached Brexit as a vehicle for achieving a united Ireland, some unionists claim the deal is the thin edge of a wedge that could lead to Northern Ireland joining the Irish Republic.
The deal has shattered Mr Johnson 's alliance with the Democratic Unionists, the largest pro-British party in the region that previously propped up his Conservative government. It voted this week against the prime minister's treaty and backed moves to disrupt his Brexit timetable.
The party believes Mr Johnson broke his promise to reject "any kind of division down the Irish Sea" to finally settle Brexit. Rival unionist parties have piled scorn on the DUP for trusting Mr Johnson, saying its actions have damaged the link with Britain.
Like Theresa May's "backstop" which was rejected by the DUP, Mr Johnson's Northern Irish proposal is designed to keep open the 310-mile land border with the republic to protect the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of deadly sectarian violence.
Certain goods moving into Northern Ireland from Britain will be checked under the new Brexit plan, which will keep the region both within Europe's customs union and the UK customs territory. EU single market rules which will no longer apply in Britain will also be maintained.
At a time of political ferment and demographic change that has eroded unionist dominance of the region, some claim Mr Johnson's deal may lead to the region leaving the UK.
Jim Allister, leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice, a small DUP breakaway party, has said the arrangement puts the region "in a waiting room for Irish unity with the door locked from the outside".
Leo Varadkar, Irish premier, has sought to reassure unionists that the agreement will not affect Northern Ireland's constitutional position.
But such words have done little to ease unionist anxiety. Simon Byrne, chief of the Police Service of Northern Ireland, warned recently that the Brexit deal could spark a new wave of loyalist civil disorder.
Steve Aiken, who this week became leader-elect the Ulster Unionist party, said the deal will leave Northern Ireland "substantially a place apart" from the rest of the UK. Asked if it made a united Ireland more likely, he replied: "The treaty as it stands opens up a whole lot of possibilities, one of which might be in that direction."
But Alex Kane, a commentator who was formerly the Ulster Unionists' communications director, is unconvinced. "The only way Northern Ireland ceases to be a member of the UK is if a majority vote to leave. Personally I don't think we're in any way closer to that point yet, not least because I don't think the Irish government has any interest in a border poll right now."
The Good Friday pact is clear that a united Ireland can only be brought about via referendums in Northern Ireland and the republic at the same time.
The Sinn Féin Irish republican party has repeatedly urged Dublin to plan for unity and a border poll but Mr Varadkar, Ireland's premier, said last month the timing is poor and risks making "a bad situation worse".
Mark Durkan, former leader of the nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party, said anxiety about Brexit has spurred a "growing conversation" on unity.
The insistence of Brexiters and unionists that there could be no differentiation for any part of the UK caused particular disquiet as Northern Ireland was different on several levels under the Good Friday pact, Mr Durkan said. "If there's a pan-UK approach that trumps all of the precepts of the Good Friday Agreement people are saying we have a right to look beyond the current constitutional status . . . Inevitably the next question is why not something else."
Ireland's foreign ministry said the government's priority was to restore power-sharing at Stormont, which collapsed in January 2017, and protect the Good Friday deal after Brexit.
"At present, the Irish government does not believe that a border poll as provided for under the Good Friday Agreement would result in a decision on the part of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland in favour of constitutional change," the ministry said.
The mainly Catholic nationalist population in Northern Ireland remains a minority, but it has demographic momentum. An election in March 2017 was the first to leave unionist parties without an outright majority.
A census in 2011 was the first to show people with a Protestant background, the largely unionist community, accounting for less than half the population. It comprised 48.4 per cent, down from 53.1 per cent in 2001 - compared with 45.1 per cent from a Catholic background, up from 43.8 per cent in 2001. The next census is in 2021.
At the same time, the number of people who say they are neither unionist nor nationalist is rising. Research last June by Queen's University Belfast and Ulster University suggested that 50 per cent describe themselves as neither unionist nor nationalist, up from 33 per cent in 1998, the year of the Good Friday deal.
A survey last month for Lord Ashcroft, the Conservative pollster, pointed to a slight majority for Irish unification in Northern Ireland, with 51 per cent saying they were in favour of a united Ireland.
Bill White, chief of Belfast-based polling company LucidTalk, said: "If everything stays as it is and Brexit doesn't happen - or there's a settled solution for Northern Ireland - the demand for a united Ireland fades away."
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